Problem Statement: South China Sea Crisis 2030
In this assignment, you will apply operational art concepts and Joint Publication 5-0’s problem defining methodology to develop a comprehensive Problem Statement. By considering complex joint planning concepts in the context of a notional operational environment, you will both demonstrate your understanding of joint planning and learn more about it. The purpose of this assignment is to enhance your analytical skills and deepen your understanding of joint planning. For this assignment consider yourself working as a planner in the combatant command J5 staff.
Craft a 300-to-400-word Problem Statement based on joint planning concepts learned in this course suite and the operational context provided in the material below. Your final product must demonstrate understanding of operational design concepts and describe the problem.
Before reviewing the specific scenario documents, watch this video for a quick refresher on important considerations when developing a Problem Statement.
https://youtu.be/mr0oSflZ4zs?
Problem Statement: South China Sea Crisis 2030
As of 2030, tensions in the South China Sea (SCS) have reached a critical point, threatening regional stability and challenging U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The situation has escalated due to aggressive actions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which has militarized artificial islands in the Spratly Islands and asserted control over disputed maritime territories. This development has significantly disrupted regional trade routes, restricted freedom of navigation, and undermined the sovereignty of Southeast Asian nations, many of which are U.S. allies or partners.
The PRC’s actions are compounded by a growing military presence, including advanced air and missile systems, and its increasing use of hybrid warfare tactics—combining economic coercion, diplomatic pressure, and military intimidation. The PRC has also leveraged its control of critical infrastructure to influence regional economies, creating an asymmetric challenge for the U.S. and its allies, particularly in areas of critical infrastructure such as ports, telecommunications, and energy supplies.
The primary problem facing U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) is the erosion of strategic influence in the Indo-Pacific region due to the PRC’s expansionist activities. The immediate task is to prevent further encroachment in the South China Sea and counteract the PRC’s ability to assert control over critical maritime zones. This requires a multifaceted approach that integrates military, diplomatic, informational, and economic measures to deter Chinese aggression while preserving the regional security architecture.
Key operational challenges include:
- Deterring further Chinese Military Escalation: The PRC has made clear its intentions to expand its military presence in the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific. USINDOPACOM must balance the need for military readiness with the risk of escalation, as Chinese forces are increasingly capable of challenging U.S. freedom of movement and projecting power in the region.
- Strengthening Alliances and Partnerships: U.S. alliances with countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are central to maintaining stability in the region. However, these alliances are under strain due to the PRC’s economic and diplomatic influence. Strengthening these partnerships and ensuring their resilience against Chinese pressure is critical to achieving U.S. objectives.
- Protecting Freedom of Navigation: The PRC’s control of key maritime choke points in the South China Sea poses a significant challenge to global trade and regional security. USINDOPACOM must work to ensure the continued flow of commerce and freedom of navigation while avoiding direct confrontation that could lead to military conflict.
The primary objective is to preserve regional stability by deterring further Chinese expansion, reinforcing U.S. alliances and partnerships, and ensuring the security of key sea lanes vital to global commerce. Failure to address this challenge risks undermining U.S. credibility in the Indo-Pacific, leading to the erosion of the international rules-based order and a shift in the regional power balance in favor of the PRC.
Key Concepts Applied:
- Problem Definition: Clearly identifies the operational environment, the adversary (PRC), and the primary challenges that must be addressed.
- Centers of Gravity (COG): The PRC’s military and economic power, as well as its ability to control critical infrastructure in the region, represent COGs that must be targeted or neutralized.
- Operational Design: Focuses on integrating DIME (Diplomatic, Informational, Military, Economic) tools to counter Chinese expansion while avoiding full-scale conflict, stressing the importance of diplomatic and military coordination.
- Complexity and Joint Planning: The problem requires a comprehensive approach that involves multi-domain operations (military, cyber, and informational), in coordination with regional partners, to achieve strategic objectives.