Week 5 – Apply: Operation Plan
Assignment Content
This assignment is intended to help you learn how to apply forecasting and demand models as part of a business operations plan.
Choose 2 quantitative elements that you would like to research in relation to the organization that you selected for your business plan. These elements may be related to products, services, target market, consumer preferences, competition, personnel, resources, supply chain, financing, advertising, or other areas of interest. However, at least one of these elements should be related to a product or service that your organization is planning to offer.
Develop forecasts by implementing the following approach:
- Collect data, including old demand forecast (subjective data) and the actual demand outcomes.
- Establish the forecasting method (from readings). Decide on the balance between subjective and objective data and look for trends and seasonality.
- Forecast future demand using a forecasting method.
- Make decisions based on step 3.
- Measure the forecast error where applicable. Look for biases and improve the process.
Write a 350- to 525-word paper evaluating the findings from the supported data points above, and explain the impact of these findings on operational decision making. Insert charts and supporting data from Excel and other tools in your paper.
For this assignment, I have selected two quantitative elements to research for the organization that I have selected for my business plan. The first element is related to the target market, specifically the age group of consumers that the organization is targeting. The second element is related to the supply chain, specifically the lead time required to receive materials from suppliers.
To develop forecasts for these elements, I followed the following approach:
- Collect data: I collected data on the organization’s old demand forecast and the actual demand outcomes related to the two selected quantitative elements.
- Establish the forecasting method: I decided to use a combination of subjective and objective data to forecast future demand. For the age group target market, I used both subjective data, such as consumer surveys and feedback, as well as objective data, such as demographic data and market trends. For the lead time element, I used historical data on supplier delivery times and the organization’s production schedule to establish a baseline.
- Forecast future demand: Using the forecasting methods outlined in my readings, I forecasted future demand for the two elements. For the target market age group, I forecasted a steady increase in demand among the selected age group over the next year. For the lead time element, I forecasted a slight increase in lead time due to anticipated changes in supplier availability.
- Make decisions: Based on the forecasted demand, I made operational decisions regarding production schedules and resource allocation.